Your old fixed deal is ending, and every new quote seems more expensive. Here's how to compare the choices you actually have now, and when you can switch without an exit fee.
Your supplier has written to say your fixed energy deal is nearly over. You check its renewal offer, then look at other deals, and the result is a nasty surprise: fixing again could cost considerably more than your current tariff.
If your fixed tariff is ending, compare replacement fixes now rather than doing nothing. A new fix will probably cost more than the deal you're losing, but that old price is going either way. The real comparison is with the standard variable tariff, which rose in October and is forecast to rise again in January. A competitively priced fix could cost less than the alternatives and protect you from further increases.
The Energy Shop's analysis finds that customers moving from an existing fixed deal to a new fixed deal currently face an average increase of 10.7%, or £174. That's a real increase against the deal they've enjoyed, but it isn't a reason to reject another fix. With the standard variable tariff (SVT) already rising in October and forecasts pointing to a further rise of 16% or more in January, paying 10.7% more than an old deal could still protect you from a much bigger increase.
Your existing rates were agreed when the market looked different. Once they expire, they're no longer an option. The useful question is: what will a new fix cost compared with the tariffs you could move onto instead? For most households, the main alternative is their supplier's standard variable tariff, and simply rolling onto it could leave you exposed to another big winter increase.
In this guide:What happens when it ends?Why it costs moreFix or variable?Can a dearer fix save money?When to compareWhat to checkFAQs
Fixed deal ending soon?
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A fixed tariff locks in the price per kilowatt-hour (kWh) of gas or electricity and the daily standing charges for a set term. It doesn't lock in your total bill: the more energy you use, the more you pay. Our guide to fixed-price energy tariffs explains how these deals work.
When the term ends, your gas and electricity keep flowing. If you haven't chosen a new deal, your supplier will generally move you onto its standard variable, or default, tariff. You can then stay, take another tariff from the same supplier or switch suppliers. Don't assume the renewal in your supplier's email is the only fix available.
On a standard variable tariff, unit rates and standing charges can change, within Ofgem's energy price cap. The cap applies to default tariffs, not to the rates on a normal fixed deal. It limits what a supplier can charge per unit and in standing charges, but it doesn't cap your total bill. Your costs still depend on how much energy you use, your region and how you pay.
Think of your current fix as a price agreed in the past. Your supplier priced it using the costs and expectations at the time. A renewal, or a rival supplier's new offer, reflects today's market and what's expected over the coming months. You can't keep your old rates just because you were already paying them.
That's why the £174 average increase in our analysis needs context. It compares an expiring fix with a replacement fix. It doesn't tell you whether the replacement is cheaper or dearer than moving onto a standard variable tariff from the same date.
It's also an average, not a quote for your home. Two neighbours may see different changes because their old fixes started at different times, they use different amounts of energy, or their new tariffs have different unit rates and standing charges. Check the estimated annual cost based on your own kWh use, rather than just adding 10.7% to your Direct Debit.
Our expert says"A £174 increase when you compare a new fix with the deal that's ending can look alarming, but that old price is about to disappear. The real question is what your energy will cost if you don't fix. With the standard variable tariff rising in October and forecasts pointing to a further increase of 16% or more in January, a replacement fix that costs 10.7% more than your old deal could still save you a considerable amount."
Scott Byrom, Chief Executive Officer, The Energy Shop
Start with two prices for the same expected gas and electricity use: the best suitable fixed tariff available to you, and your supplier's standard variable tariff from the day your old deal ends. Include both unit rates and daily standing charges. Compare other suppliers too, as your current supplier's renewal is a starting point, not the benchmark for the whole market.
Ofgem's price cap for a typical dual-fuel household paying by Direct Debit rose from £1,663 in July to September to £1,723 in October to December 2026. These are annualised figures at typical usage. £1,723 is what October to December rates would cost if they stayed in place for a full year. They're only set for three months, so it's not a guaranteed 12-month bill for your household. Our guide to the energy price cap has more detail.
| Price cap period | Typical annual dual-fuel cost |
|---|---|
| July to September 2026 | £1,663 |
| October to December 2026 | £1,723 (up 3.6%) |
| January to March 2027 (forecast) | £1,999 (up 16%), Cornwall Insight forecast, not confirmed |
The next cap, covering January to March 2027, is due to be announced on 25 November 2026, and the direction of travel is worrying. On 30 September, Cornwall Insight forecast a £1,999 annualised price cap from January blaming the escalating conflict in the Middle East, disruption to gas supplies and low gas storage levels in Europe. Some estimates are higher still, at around £2,100.
These rises are not confirmed. They're forecasts based on current market conditions, and things could improve or get worse before Ofgem makes its announcement. But waiting for certainty has a cost: suppliers can withdraw or reprice fixed tariffs as wholesale costs change. If a competitive fix is available now, it may be gone before 25 November.
A fixed tariff makes sense if its rates are competitive across the term and you want protection from the increases now being forecast. Right now, that's the stronger option for many households coming off an older fix. A standard variable tariff keeps you flexible, but it also leaves you exposed to every quarterly cap change. If variable rates fall, a fix may leave you paying more until it ends or until you pay to leave. If the January cap rises in line with forecasts, a well-priced fix could save you a lot.
For a closer look at today's choice, read should I fix my energy prices? and check the latest energy tariffs. Tariffs can be withdrawn or repriced, so run a fresh comparison before applying.
Yes, and this is the key point. A new fix can be dearer than your expiring deal and still be much cheaper than what you'll face after that deal ends. There's no contradiction, because the two comparisons start from different places.
Imagine your old fixed rates would cost £1,626 a year at your expected use, while a new fix would cost £1,800. That's a £174 rise, or about 10.7%, against the old deal. It feels expensive because you're looking backwards.
Now look forwards. If the January cap comes in at Cornwall Insight's forecast of £1,999 at typical use, the £1,800 fix in this example would be around £199 below the January SVT annualised level. If the higher estimates of around £2,100 are right, the gap would be wider still.
| Option | Annual cost | Compared with the new fix |
|---|---|---|
| Your old fix (ending) | £1,626 | £174 cheaper, but no longer available |
| New fix | £1,800 | n/a |
| SVT if January cap hits £1,999 | £1,999 | £199 dearer than the new fix |
Figures are illustrative and based on typical usage. They're not a guaranteed saving over a year, as the cap can change every three months, tariffs differ and your bill depends on how much energy you use.
This shows why the £174 increase against an expiring deal is the wrong figure to base your decision on.
There's still a trade-off. A fix could work out more expensive if wholesale prices fall sharply, and high exit fees could make it costly to leave. But with the risks currently pointing upwards, the certainty of a fixed price has real financial value, not just peace of mind. Check the whole contract, but don't reject a strong fix just because it's dearer than the bargain you're losing.
Find your tariff's end date on your bill, in your online account or on your supplier's notice. You can start looking at deals before then. For most domestic fixed tariffs, the key date is 49 calendar days before it ends. From that point, you can generally switch without paying an exit fee on the deal you're leaving. Ofgem confirms this protection, and our guide explains when you can switch without an exit penalty.
Switching earlier can still be worthwhile if the savings are bigger than any exit fee, but work out the fee for both fuels if you have gas and electricity, and check your contract terms. You can also compare in advance and ask a new supplier when its tariff would start. Don't assume an offer will still be available when your current deal ends.
Has your fix already ended? It's not too late. Check which tariff you're on now, compare what's available and switch if you find a suitable deal. You don't need to wait for the next price cap announcement to start comparing.
Compare tariffs using your postcode and usage, and read the tariff summary before you agree to switch. Remember that a supplier's monthly Direct Debit is a payment arrangement, not proof of what a tariff will cost over a year.
Your supply carries on, and your supplier will generally move you to its standard variable tariff. Its rates may be different from your old fix and can change with the price cap. Check your supplier's notice and compare deals, as you can still switch after your fixed term ends.
Yes. In the final 49 calendar days, you can generally leave a domestic fixed tariff without an exit fee. You can usually switch earlier too, but an exit fee may apply, so weigh it against the potential savings. Our penalty-free switching guide explains how it works.
Your current fixed tariff may charge a fee if you leave before its final 49 days. There's generally no exit fee for leaving in that window or after the term ends. A new fixed tariff may have its own exit fees if you leave it early later on, so check those separately. Standard variable tariffs don't usually have exit fees.
Neither is automatically better. A one-year fix gives you a chance to review the market sooner. A two-year fix may protect your unit rates for longer, but you could miss out on cheaper deals if prices fall. Compare the actual rates, the months covered and the exit fees. Remember that a two-year deal's annual estimate isn't a promise about your total bill, as how much you use still matters.
No. Compare its renewal offer with fixed and variable tariffs from other suppliers. Switching won't interrupt your gas or electricity. If you're in credit or have special tariff conditions, check how they'll be handled when you switch.
Your old fix explains why the renewal feels expensive, but it can't tell you which tariff is best next. That old rate is disappearing. With the SVT rising in October and a bigger January increase now forecast, doing nothing means staying exposed.
Compare the new fix with the standard variable tariff and other live deals for your use. Weigh up the price against the length of the deal and the cost of leaving early, but if you find a competitive fix, there's a strong case for locking it in before the market moves again.
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Last updated: 2 October 2026. Price cap figures are for a typical dual-fuel household paying by Direct Debit. Forecasts are not confirmed and may change. Switches typically complete within five working days, and there's no interruption to your supply.
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