As of September 2026, we strongly urge ALL customers to consider fixing their energy bills. The Energy Price Cap (controlled by regulator - Ofgem) will rise by 4% in October, but it is the early forecasts for January that are the shock on the horizon. Here, we expect to see price increases of above 20% according to leading analysts. Therefore, fixing your energy deals as soon as possible will help you avoid this price shock and help save you hundreds on your home energy bills.
Our verdict, September 2026
Switch to a "fixed" rate tariff ASAP.
With energy bills expected to rise by over 20% in January, switching to a fixed deal now helps protect your bills.
If you are on a standard variable tariff, your rates are "protected" by the price cap and will typically sit at or close to it.
Ofgem confirmed the October cap at £1,723, around 4% above the previous level seen between July - September. That is not a dramatic rise, but it is a rise, and it arrives at the point in the year when households start using significantly more energy. The same unit rate produces a far larger bill in November than in August because households use much more energy.
That aside, the ongoing rise of wholesale gas prices is now making energy analysts predict a possible 20% rise in domestic energy prices from 1st January 2027. If true, that will add over £300 a year to the average energy bill. With "fixed" deals on the market at around £1,640 a year for the average home, they are offering savings of +£350 a year.
Switching to a fixed energy tariff could save the average customer over £350 a year once the January price hike lands. Already this month, we helped one customer save £612 a year by moving them to a 24-month fixed deal. That is before the predicted price hike the market expects to see in January. If you want to keep your bills down, and protect yourself from further price jumps, lock in a rate with a "fixed" energy tariff that works for you.
- Scott Byrom, Chief Executive Officer
| Period | Electricity | Gas | Typical annual bill |
|---|---|---|---|
| Previous cap Jul–Sep 2026 |
26.11p per kWh | 7.33p per kWh | £1,663 |
| Current cap Oct–Dec 2026 |
26.32p per kWh | 7.97p per kWh | £1,723 |
Standing charges from 1 October are 54.83p a day for electricity and 29.04p a day for gas.
Confirmed Ofgem price cap rates, GB average, Direct Debit. October figures include 5% VAT on gas and 0% on electricity, so they cannot be compared like-for-like with July.
Three things are worth drawing out of that table.
Gas is doing the work. The gas unit rate rose around 9% while electricity barely moved. Most homes with a gas boiler use three to four times as much gas as electricity by volume, so the effect on a typical bill is larger than the headline 4% suggests and it arrives just as the heating goes on.
The electricity figure is flattered by a tax change. VAT on domestic electricity dropped from 5% to 0% on 1 October 2026. That 26.32p rate already has the VAT stripped out. Underneath the tax cut, electricity costs are rising more than the number implies.
The VAT cut is temporary. It runs to 31 March 2027 as announced. Unless it is extended, electricity rates should be expected to step back up by around 5% in April 2027. VAT changes flow through to fixed tariffs as well as variable ones, so a fix will not protect you from that, worth knowing if you are considering a deal that runs beyond next spring.
The right answer depends on where you currently sit.
| Your situation | What to do now |
|---|---|
| On a standard variable tariff | You are exposed to every quarterly change, and the January cap is forecast upward. Comparing is worth doing now. Look for a fix priced within a few per cent of the capped rates above, and treat anything well beyond that with scepticism. |
| Fixed deal ending in the next couple of months | Compare immediately. You can switch penalty-free in the final 49 days of a fixed term, and if you do nothing you will be moved onto your supplier's standard variable tariff automatically, which is almost always a price rise. |
| Part-way through a fix | Check your exit fee, typically £25 to £75 per fuel. If you fixed before the summer rises, you are probably already sitting below where the market is heading, so there is unlikely to be a case for paying it. Diarise your end date and compare 50 days out. |
A verdict is only worth anything if it can change. Three things would move ours:
We review this page at every Ofgem price cap announcement. The next is expected in late November 2026, when the January 2027 cap will be confirmed ahead of taking effect on 1 January.
Four checks, whatever the market is doing:
Our fixed price energy guide sets out the full framework, including a worked example showing what a fix costs you against staying variable.
As of September 2026, yes, if you can find a rate close to the current cap. The October cap rose 4%, driven by gas, and early forecasts point to a further rise in January. A fix within a few per cent of today's rates buys useful certainty. One priced well above them is poor value.
No forecaster can say with confidence. What is known is that the electricity VAT cut is due to expire on 31 March 2027, which should push electricity rates up by around 5% from April unless it is extended. Beyond that, prices depend on wholesale gas markets, which have been volatile throughout 2026, and early predictions point to a further cap rise in January.
Yes, and start early. You can switch penalty-free during the final 49 days of a fixed term, so comparing seven weeks before your end date costs nothing. If you let it lapse, you are moved onto the standard variable tariff automatically, which is priced at the cap and almost always more expensive.
You keep paying your fixed rate, that is the trade you made. You can leave early, but you will usually pay an exit fee of £25 to £75 per fuel, which may cancel out the saving. Work out the difference over your remaining term before deciding.
As things stand in September 2026, fixing is worth considering, because the cap has risen into the winter, gas is driving it, and further rises are forecast for January. But the verdict comes with a condition attached: it holds only for deals priced close to the current cap. There is no fixed rate so good that the premium never matters.
Ultimately this is a judgement about how much certainty is worth to you, not a certainty in itself. Forecasts move, and ours will too. What does not change is that the capped rate is the maximum, not a deal — so the useful first step is finding out what else is available.
See what is actually available at your address before you decide.
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Last updated: 16 September 2026. Capped rates reflect the confirmed Ofgem price cap for 1 October to 31 December 2026. The next review, for 1 January to 31 March 2027, is expected in late November 2026.
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The Energy Shop is a free, independent and impartial energy price comparison service. We can help you compare and switch energy suppliers to help you save money. Our service is accredited by the Ofgem Confidence Code.
