Last Updated: 26th August 2026
Current Status: Behind Target
Despite removing VAT from electricity bills between October 2026 - March 2027 (it might have been nice to take it off gas instead given it's Autumn/Winter) the rot continues for the UK government in their hopes of delivering £300 lower energy bills by 2030. Factoring in inflation to provide a "real term" view, the latest Energy Price Cap, which sets the price for 60% of UK homes, is set to rise yet again with a further 4% increase from 1st October 2026. This will set a real-term energy price for the average UK home of £1,824.60, meaning bills are almost £400 more expensive rather than being £300 cheaper.
NOTE: This is based on old Typical Domestic Consumption Values (TDCVs) for consistency.
NOTE: The above figures will be updated when ONS data is next released on 17th June 2026.
The black line is the actual Energy Price Cap in today's money.
The solid blue line is the CPI Adjusted Energy Price Cap i.e. showing today's bill in 2024 money.
The dotted blue line is the provisional CPI Adjusted Energy Price Cap i.e. we are still waiting for official ONS data for this period but have forecasted using the most recent data available.
The dashed grey line is the glide path to the Government achieving their target by 2030. If the blue lines are above, they are off track. If the blue lines are below, they are on track.
The flat red line is the target i.e. the average UK energy bill at £1,472.
In Labour's manifesto for the 2024 UK General Election, they made claims that their Net Zero plans would reduce the average UK energy bill by up to £300 in 2030.
There appear to be varying reports to whether this related to electricity bills or energy bills (i.e. gas and electricity) but in an interview with Sophy Ridge from Sky News on 25th February 2026, Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero - Ed Miliband, stated "we want bills to be £300 lower by 2030". When pushed to clarify "£300 lower than what", the Secretary of State said "in real terms we want it to be upto £300 lower than it was (in 2024)". Specifically here, they were talking about the average cost of a dual fuel (i.e. gas and electricity) energy bill stating a figure from 2024 of £1,750. Infact, the average energy bill in 2024, going off the Ofgem 'Energy Price Cap', was £1,727.82.
Firstly, when the government say "in real terms", they mean adjusting a monetary value to account for the effects of inflation or deflation. This means they want bills to be £300 lower by 2030 in 2024 money. This gives us our anchor to track their progress i.e. in 2024 the average energy bill was £1,727.82. They want bills to be £300 lower by 2030, meaning we have a target figure of £1,427.82 by 2030. Right now, we're at £1,787.22 - a gap of £359.40.
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